2024 has been a defining year for the mobility industry. From the rise and fall of autonomous vehicle players to evolving EV adoption trends and landmark climate policy decisions, this year has offered a clearer picture of where we’re heading and what challenges lie ahead.
In this inaugural edition of Mobility Matters, I'll share my perspective on key mobility trends of 2024, grounded in observable data and developments. I’ll focus on the most impactful stories and encourage thoughtful, nuanced debate to explore what’s shaping the future of transportation.
The Big Thesis
The mobility industry is evolving through a mix of incremental advancements and disruptive innovations. 2024 has shown us that while progress may not be linear, it’s happening steadily—shaped by technology, policy, and shifting consumer behavior. As we look ahead, the industry’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions while staying focused on long-term goals will define its trajectory.
Common Assumptions to Keep in Mind
- Technology Alone Doesn’t Solve Everything: The success of trends like EV adoption and micromobility hinges on infrastructure, affordability, and user behavior.
- Policy and Markets Are Interconnected: Policy incentives drive innovation, but market forces and competition often determine the pace of adoption.
- Growth Looks Different Across Segments: Not all parts of the mobility sector grow equally, and recognizing these nuances is critical to understanding broader industry shifts.
- Climate Change Is a Driving Force: The urgency to decarbonize transportation is no longer optional—it’s a defining factor shaping investment, innovation, and policy priorities across the mobility sector.
With this framework in mind, let’s dive into the trends that shaped mobility in 2024 and explore what they might signal for the future of transportation.
Autonomous Vehicles: Progress and Setbacks
2024 was a year of contrasts for the autonomous vehicle (AV) industry. Some players struggled with the complexities of scaling, while others made steady progress toward their goals.
One of the year’s biggest developments was GM’s decision to pull back from Cruise, underscoring the ongoing challenges of deploying fully autonomous passenger vehicles in urban environments. This recalibration reflected a growing recognition that the road to widespread autonomy may be longer and more costly than anticipated.However, GM hasn’t abandoned autonomy altogether. The company has shifted its focus to integrating autonomous features into passenger-owned vehicles, betting on incremental adoption rather than fully driverless systems in shared fleets.
On the other hand, Waymo expanded its fully driverless ride-hailing services into additional cities, solidifying its position as a leader in the urban AV space.
On the freight side, Kodiak Robotics took a strategic turn by exploring off-road trucking to achieve profitability faster. However, this shift introduces its own unique set of challenges. Despite these innovations, Kodiak had initially aimed to be fully commercial by 2024 or early 2025. However, it may face a timeline more similar to Aurora Innovation, which recently delayed its commercial launch to 2025.
China also made significant strides in the AV sector. Companies are scaling their robotaxi programs, operating in government-designated zones and benefiting from substantial regulatory support and state-backed infrastructure development. This centralized approach enables rapid deployment and highlights a stark contrast to the more fragmented regulatory landscape in the U.S. China's progress underscores its ambition to lead the global AV race, leveraging policy alignment and infrastructure investments to accelerate adoption
Looking ahead, further divergence in the AV industry is likely. Leaders like Waymo will continue building traction in urban mobility, while freight-focused companies may face slower profitability timelines. At the same time, China's robust support for its AV ecosystem positions it as a formidable player to watch, offering lessons on the role of centralized coordination in scaling disruptive technologies.
Electric Vehicles: Challenges and Opportunities
2024 is shaping up to be another milestone year for the global electric vehicle (EV) market, with global EV sales expected to hit a record of 16.7 million vehicles, surpassing previous years' numbers. While some have pointed to a much overblown growth rate slowdown as evidence of faltering demand, the reality is that the industry remains on a solid upward trajectory, driven by innovation, affordability, and supportive policies.
In the U.S., EV sales have continued to grow in 2024, with General Motors becoming America's second-best-selling EV maker behind Tesla, pushing Hyundai Motor Group into the third.
This demonstrates that despite some economic headwinds, demand for EVs remains robust, especially with the introduction of more affordable models and continued government incentives
Meanwhile, China continues to lead the way in EV adoption, with Chinese automakers offering affordable models and pushing the boundaries of EV production. The country’s expansion of charging networks and government policies has helped maintain strong EV sales domestically, establishing China as a global leader in the sector.
Looking ahead, the EV market will likely continue to be shaped by ongoing innovations in battery technology, government policies, and supply chain dynamics. As raw material prices and geopolitical tensions impact production costs, the industry will need to balance affordability with sustainability to capture the full potential of the market. Shifts in user behavior—such as growing interest in subscription-based ownership models, increased reliance on public charging infrastructure, and demand for seamless integration with renewable energy systems—will also play a critical role in EV adoption.
Under the Trump administration, the EV landscape could face new challenges and shifts. A focus on deregulation and support for traditional fossil fuel industries may lead to reduced federal incentives for EV purchases and charging infrastructure expansion. However, market momentum, state-level initiatives, and corporate commitments to sustainability should continue to drive innovation and adoption, even in a less supportive federal policy environment. This dynamic could sharpen the divide between states with aggressive climate policies and those without, creating a patchwork of EV adoption rates across the country.
Sustainability: A Balancing Act Between Progress and Policy Shifts
This year’s COP29 discussions underscored the urgency of decarbonizing transportation, with an ambitious focus on scaling hydrogen infrastructure and sustainable aviation fuels to tackle emissions-heavy sectors like freight and aviation. Global agreements emphasized collaborative innovation and investment, setting a tone of optimism for sustainability in mobility.
The private sector has stepped up, with record funding for startups working on clean hydrogen technologies.
In urban areas, micromobility solutions like e-bikes, scooters, and cargo e-bikes are experiencing a revival, supported by growing concerns over air quality and traffic congestion. Cities are experimenting with policies and infrastructure to encourage the shift to cleaner, more efficient modes of transport, including dedicated bike lanes and subsidies for personal electric vehicles. Denver, for example, has achieved significant success with its e-bike rebate program, which has led to widespread adoption of electric bikes and demonstrated the power of targeted incentives in reducing reliance on cars. Cities across the globe are learning from such initiatives, implementing dedicated bike lanes, subsidies for personal electric vehicles, and other measures to facilitate greener urban mobility
Looking forward, sustainability efforts will need to navigate a changing regulatory landscape, particularly in the U.S., where federal climate policies may become less supportive under the new administration. This dynamic places greater responsibility on private companies, local governments, and international bodies to drive progress. I expect the focus to shift towards market-driven solutions, innovative public-private partnerships, and increased accountability through voluntary sustainability targets.
Conclusion
As we close out 2024, the mobility sector stands at a pivotal moment—where groundbreaking innovations intersect with pressing economic, environmental, and regulatory challenges. From the cautious optimism surrounding autonomous vehicles to the accelerating yet uneven progress of EV adoption, and from ambitious sustainability goals to the resurgence of micromobility, this year has underscored that mobility's evolution is as complex as it is transformative.
The road ahead demands bold action: navigating market contractions with resilience, fostering innovation amidst regulatory uncertainties, and scaling sustainable solutions to meet global demands. These challenges are not just hurdles; they are opportunities to redefine transportation systems for a cleaner, more intelligent, and equitable future.
As I continue to delve into these transformative trends, I invite you to join me in uncovering insights, sparking conversations, and driving impact. Together, we can lead the charge in shaping the next chapter of mobility innovation and ensuring that progress benefits us all.
Here’s to a transformative 2025!
Thank you for reading!
